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Be Careful What You Wish For
Hazards of Trend-Spotting Dept.:
From the Outlook section, March 7, 1999:
By J.A.
The biggest events of the 1990s were things that didn't actually happen.
The time has come to write the rough draft of the decade, and what we see, time and again, is that the events that consumed our attention and fueled our passions also managed, inexplicably, to fall short of reaching the special condition where one could say they had happened.
Some nearly happened. Some sort of happened. Some allegedly happened. Most, however, failed to "finish," as they say when a basketball player drives to the hoop but misses the dunk.
Obviously the biggest thing that didn't happen was President Clinton's removal from office. Yes, there was, indeed, the "historic impeachment," and it was a spectacular moment of political drama in many respects--surely there were folks in the nation's capital who said to themselves, "I can't believe this is really happening!"--but the drama was seriously undermined and attenuated by the certainty that ultimately nothing would happen. It always felt like a process that would peter out. They didn't even censure the guy.
Perhaps the seminal statement of the decade came from Secret Service watch commander Capt. Jeffrey Purdie. In some deep, debris-clogged gutter of your brain you may recall the incident when Monica Lewinsky went ballistic at the White House gate. Never mind the precise details. The point is that, when it was over, the guards realized they'd glimpsed something they weren't supposed to know about, something they should conveniently forget. Purdie told his colleagues:
"Whatever just happened, didn't happen."
Clinton has been, time and again, an instigator of things that somehow never quite made it to the "happening" stage. Health-care reform was his and his wife's greatest, most ambitious non-starter. The plan got torched, burning up most of the administration's political capital. After that, the president couldn't do much but sit around and clap while the economy rumbled onward.
You may recall that early in the decade, the Supreme Court was going to overturn Roe v. Wade. Conventional wisdom held that a string of Republican appointees finally had created a majority against abortion. But when the test case came up in 1992, by a 5 to 4 vote, the court didn't overturn Roe. Why didn't it happen? Because the court has a truly conservative disposition, and adheres to the principle of stare decisis, which is Latin for "We don't do anything." A justice who is hellbent on doing something is almost invariably writing a dissenting opinion. (You can argue the point all you want. I decline to hear the case.) [This graph voided--JA, 2007]
The Republican Revolution didn't happen. The Republicans did, of course, take control of both houses of Congress, but that was merely supposed to be an event preparatory to something else. The Republicans nibbled away at the government but revolutionized nothing. They vowed to abolish the Department of Education, which, last anyone checked, still exists. They did not pass massive tax cuts, or restore school prayer, or outlaw the burning of the flag or any of those other things that Republicans talk about. They did pass the line-item veto, and Clinton signed it. But some federal judge, in a rare spasm of action, ruled it unconstitutional. Process isn't the same thing as action. The bottom line: Nothing happened.
Oh, did I mention the ongoing saga of campaign finance reform? Two words sum up that situation.
Didn't happen.
The biggest story in science in this decade may have been the discovery of extraterrestrial life. On Aug. 7, 1996, a team of NASA scientists announced that it had found possible fossils of tiny microbes in a Martian meteorite recovered in Antarctica. No one had ever found a sample of life from beyond the Earth. The president himself went on national television to say that the implications were profound. Unfortunately, even though the NASA team continues to support its conclusion, the rest of the scientific community has become increasingly skeptical. The emerging view is that the squiggly little "microbes" are flakes of the rock. It is looking as though the scientists didn't discover extraterrestrial life, just extraterrestrial grit.
In 1998, the world shuddered with the news that a giant asteroid would come within a whisker of planet Earth in the year 2028 and might even strike it, which would, of course, wipe out civilization. The next day, the astronomers said the numbers were wrong. Never mind.
The stock market was bid to such dizzying heights that everyone knew it would crash. It had to. The price-to-earnings ratios went off the charts, in some cases reaching infinity. Amazon.com has a market capitalization of tens of billions of dollars even though the company is just one lonely guy in his basement with a laptop computer. And yet the crash refuses to happen as logic dictates it must. [Voided within hours of publication.]
A racing, go-go economy always leads to one thing: inflation. Except in the 1990s. It refuses to show itself. It doesn't want to happen.
The economic crisis happened all over the world, except in America, where it was stopped at the border on grounds that its immigration would violate the national policy against anything major happening.
The next huge event that won't actually happen is the worldwide recession and general bad craziness caused by the Y2K computer bug. The nation may be bunkering down with a generation's supply of Spam, but the president's Y2K czar, John Koskinen, insists that the biggest danger is overreaction. Now, Koskinen could be wrong. I would get a chuckle out of seeing a photograph of the guy wearing camo fatigues and eating C-rations while belly crawling across West Virginia soon after the cities go medieval. But I doubt that will happen.
Things are not happening so often that it is becoming suspicious. It is almost as though we are being lured to think about things that won't actually happen so that we won't notice things that are happening all around us. (It is my new theory, for example, that the whole Lewinsky thing was a smoke screen. Clinton planned the scandal from the get-go, to keep us from paying attention to the real scandal. What is the real scandal? No one knows, because we're too distracted. One imagines appalling possibilities, like, for example, Clinton is making extra cash by secretly calling people at dinner time and asking them to change their long-distance carrier.)
Some things have happened. We must stipulate that. There were a few events. I have made a thorough analysis of the major happenings and non-happenings of the decade, at least those I remember off the top of my head, with input from an editor who spent a good five minutes thinking about it, and one fact jumps out: Institutional planning and preparation may actually increase the chance that something won't happen. The things that don't happen tend to be the budgeted-in-advance news stories, the scheduled disasters, the anticipated shocks.
This is why the asteroid probably won't wipe us out. We have conceived this form of doom and have rolled it around in our minds. The real apocalypse will be something off everyone's radar. Global warming could be another catastrophe to fizzle, possibly overtaken by a more urgent and unforeseen problem. In 20 years, everyone will be talking about Algae Proliferation, or Nitrogen Infusion.
The things that have, in fact, happened have tended to be unexpected. Bombs happened. They happened at the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City. The Heaven's Gate suicides happened. The Rodney King beating and the Los Angeles riots happened. All these events have the common quality of being utterly unpredictable. News, in other words, still happens.
There was a war. This must be noted. It was in 1991, and was called the Persian Gulf War, and many hundreds of thousands of Americans served bravely. The war succeeded in the immediate objective of removing Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Then, Saddam Hussein was supposed to be driven from power. That didn't happen. He's still there! On paper the guy should be long gone, but there he stays, prevaricating, scheming, permanently locked into position by the mysterious inertial forces of the 1990s.
The other things that happened, other than bombs and murders and totally unforeseen events, were systemic. The Information Age continued to rocket onward. The Internet, which was unnavigable in 1990 without fancy commands, mutated into the graphically wonderful World Wide Web.
The economy, one of the biggest stories of the decade, is the ultimate system--a complex network that has no center, no governor, no nexus. The closest thing to a person in charge is Alan Greenspan. He is a cult figure whose every utterance is scrutinized for clues about interest rates. What everyone loves--what seems to make the markets jump for joy--is when people think Greenspan is going to raise interest rates, but he doesn't. The oracle of our time, Greenspan manages to speak in sentences that contain hardly any information whatsoever. He barely ventures opinions. He is the human incarnation of the concept of Not Happening.
Clearly we are seeing a major trend, one that shows no sign of abating [famous last words]. It may turn out to be the story of the millennium: Rather than the world coming to an end, the very opposite took place, a massive non-event, a moment of stunning inertia. The anti-apocalypse.
There's only one problem with the startling phenomenon of increasing non-happeningness. Even this, it may turn out, isn't happening. [Bingo.]
YouTube Debate, Plus Twenty-Foot Snakes!
I liked the YouTube debate. The questions ordinary people ask are generally better than the ones journalists ask. Biden was funny, if a bit weird at the end when he said he likes Kucinich's wife. Clinton was sharp as usual. I think she found a good leverage point on Obama when he said he'd meet with Castro and Chavez et al. [More on the debate here from Jay Rosen & Co.]
One answer from Clinton didn't quite make sense: "Chelsea went to public schools, kindergarten through eighth grade, until we moved to Washington. And then I was advised, and it was, unfortunately, good advice, that if she were to go to a public school, the press would never leave her alone, because it's a public school. So I had to make a very difficult decision."
Um, she went to Sidwell to escape the news media? What? Can reporters and photographers go stomping onto public school property (say, Wilson High right down the street) whenever they want? Her explanation doesn't ring true. More likely: Sidwell was a better school than the best public alternative in DC. Besides, if I'm not mistaken the press corps stayed away from Chelsea until she turned 18.
Here's Peter Baker in the Post's new political blog, The Trail.
'That's not what the White House said in January 1993 when it announced the decision. "They chose Sidwell Friends because it's a good school," spokesman George Stephanopoulos said at the time. "It's an academically challenging school." And, he noted, "one of the things that was particularly attractive to the family was that Sidwell has a service component that goes along with their academic requirements."
Nothing about the mean, nasty reporters. Who by the way over eight years pretty much left Chelsea alone, regardless of school.'
See also this, from the Post, Dec. 9, 1992:
'They might have consulted a number of friends, however, who send or have sent their children to private school: the Gores, whose kids attend St. Albans and the National Cathedral School; Strobe and Brooke Talbott, who sent their children to Maret; and Marian Wright Edelman, whose children went to Sidwell Friends.'
[This is the shocker, from the Post story of Jan. 6, 1993: "Tuition is $10,400 for the middle school..." Wow. For that kind of money, today, you'd be allowed to go to Sidwell only until about 11:15 in the morning, when they'd insist you leave the premises.]
[Yeah, you say, but what about inflation? OK, so tuition at Sidwell has nearly tripled, but according to this online inflation calculator, inflation between January 1993 and January 2007 increased only 41.95 percent. This reflects the general gold-plating of Northwest DC that puts into sharp relief my own downward socioeconomic spiral.] [Soon this blog will be all about class warfare 24-7.]
[ScienceTim in the boodle speechwrites for Hillary: "We sent our daughter to a private school in which it's not that much out of the ordinary to have your parents in high government office, so that she could have a more normal relationship to her peers. Also, it's no secret that the Washington, DC public schools have major problems. As a parent, I need to make the choices that are best for my child, and I was able to afford an expensive private school."]
Some more debate snippets:
CLINTON: I happen to agree that there is no military solution, and the Iraqis refuse to pursue the political solutions. In fact, I asked the Pentagon a simple question: Have you prepared for withdrawing our troops? In response, I got a
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$54 Million Pants Star in Legal Fee Fundraiser
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N.Y. Court System Seeks to Appeal Ruling Faulting Some Ad Rules
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House Democrats Approve Contempt of Congress Citations Against Two Presidential Aides
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Name: SyroBro